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Decision-Making
Jun. 4th, 2021 02:17 pmAll is going well with importing data into my database. However, it isn't a quick process, so there is still a lot of work to be done. Tomorrow, I'm tackling climate data, which may or may not be really unpleasant. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
However, yesterday, I came up with two bits of info to discuss with you all. First, the Overseas Security Advisory Council has just released a really interesting report, Guide to U.S. Government-Assisted Evacuations. You will need to register for their website to get it, but if you wonder what the US will do to help you in an emergency if you are overseas, this is an incredibly useful document. (Short version: don't hold your breath about the US coming in to save you and expect a bill in the mail if they do.) The document has a bunch of links to more information, which is pretty nice too. One of the problems I had been having earlier was that I didn't know the proper terms, so my searches for information on international risk management were getting me totally the wrong information. This document helps with that.
The other useful item from yesterday is that a friend asked me about how I'm going to manage all this data once I have it in the database. I may have already mentioned that I plan on using data, like the cost of living index, to weed out countries that are too expensive for us. Other items like ongoing conflicts, places that have malaria, and places that are dangerously repressive are off the list. Okay, but that is still going to leave all kinds of data and a bunch of countries, so what will I do then?
Let me introduce you to my favorite blog post about decision-making:
How to Choose a Goddess (Using a Spreadsheet)
Now, I'll say right at the beginning that the author and I don't agree on a lot of things. He is interested in some things that just absolutely don't do it for me. At one point, he says, "Now ask yourself: if I had a cardboard box that cost $2,000 a year and that teleported me to work after I sat in it for 30 minutes, would I be content? Actually imagine yourself sitting in the gray box and popping up at your destination some time later. Yes, it will get you from point A to point B, but it’s not a very fun experience. Also, you’re a weirdo that sits in a box." I'm already a weirdo, so the only problem would be that I would be pissed that the box cost me $2000 a year and would try to come up with a cheaper option. That being said, he has a very reasonable idea for how to make important decisions, and I plan on using this technique (normalizing the numbers so that they are all on a scale of 1 to 100 and then weighting how important various factors are to me) to get a ranked list of countries.
You may be thinking, "What if it doesn't work? What if you get a lot of really terrible options?"
If it doesn't work out correctly, then I'll go back and try to figure out why. Does it only suggest tiny islands in the middle of the ocean? Well, first, I'll take a look at those tiny islands and see what I think. Second, I might have to get a list of transportation costs between the US and the location and make it kind of important, if all the options are really hard to reach. Or maybe it will only suggest places in Central Asia. Again, I'll have to look at what factors are influencing this and figure out if we need to change the weights for the various scales or if those countries really are the best choices. My biggest concern is that it is going to mainly suggest places that won't give us visas. As I said before, though, I plan on working on the immigration question after some of the weeding out has happened. So, I'm still fairly confident that I'll find something.
However, yesterday, I came up with two bits of info to discuss with you all. First, the Overseas Security Advisory Council has just released a really interesting report, Guide to U.S. Government-Assisted Evacuations. You will need to register for their website to get it, but if you wonder what the US will do to help you in an emergency if you are overseas, this is an incredibly useful document. (Short version: don't hold your breath about the US coming in to save you and expect a bill in the mail if they do.) The document has a bunch of links to more information, which is pretty nice too. One of the problems I had been having earlier was that I didn't know the proper terms, so my searches for information on international risk management were getting me totally the wrong information. This document helps with that.
The other useful item from yesterday is that a friend asked me about how I'm going to manage all this data once I have it in the database. I may have already mentioned that I plan on using data, like the cost of living index, to weed out countries that are too expensive for us. Other items like ongoing conflicts, places that have malaria, and places that are dangerously repressive are off the list. Okay, but that is still going to leave all kinds of data and a bunch of countries, so what will I do then?
Let me introduce you to my favorite blog post about decision-making:
How to Choose a Goddess (Using a Spreadsheet)
Now, I'll say right at the beginning that the author and I don't agree on a lot of things. He is interested in some things that just absolutely don't do it for me. At one point, he says, "Now ask yourself: if I had a cardboard box that cost $2,000 a year and that teleported me to work after I sat in it for 30 minutes, would I be content? Actually imagine yourself sitting in the gray box and popping up at your destination some time later. Yes, it will get you from point A to point B, but it’s not a very fun experience. Also, you’re a weirdo that sits in a box." I'm already a weirdo, so the only problem would be that I would be pissed that the box cost me $2000 a year and would try to come up with a cheaper option. That being said, he has a very reasonable idea for how to make important decisions, and I plan on using this technique (normalizing the numbers so that they are all on a scale of 1 to 100 and then weighting how important various factors are to me) to get a ranked list of countries.
You may be thinking, "What if it doesn't work? What if you get a lot of really terrible options?"
If it doesn't work out correctly, then I'll go back and try to figure out why. Does it only suggest tiny islands in the middle of the ocean? Well, first, I'll take a look at those tiny islands and see what I think. Second, I might have to get a list of transportation costs between the US and the location and make it kind of important, if all the options are really hard to reach. Or maybe it will only suggest places in Central Asia. Again, I'll have to look at what factors are influencing this and figure out if we need to change the weights for the various scales or if those countries really are the best choices. My biggest concern is that it is going to mainly suggest places that won't give us visas. As I said before, though, I plan on working on the immigration question after some of the weeding out has happened. So, I'm still fairly confident that I'll find something.
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